Market News

Position Size Calculator: How Account Risk and Stop Distance Determine Trade Size

Calculate position size from account equity, risk percentage and effective stop-loss cost. Includes worked stock, forex and futures examples, slippage, pip and tick values, correlation risk and a pre-trade verification checklist.

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Why a High Risk-Reward Ratio Can Still Lose Money: Win Rate, Expectancy and Position Sizing

A high risk-reward ratio does not guarantee profitability. This guide shows how win rate, average win and loss, trading costs and position sizing combine to determine expectancy, with a worked example, break-even thresholds and a practical pre-trade checklist.

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Continuous Futures Charts: Why Price Changes Are Not Trading Returns

A hypothetical continuous futures chart gains 4.08% while a ten-contract position earns nothing. Rebuild the cash ledger, compare additive and ratio adjustments, and see why position sizing and the return denominator change the answer.

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Dollar Loan or Euro Funding? Compare Cross-Currency Basis, Fees and Break-Even Rates

Compare two ways to fund $10 million for 90 days. Calculate the break-even forward, see how fees reverse an apparent saving, and distinguish executable funding from a screen quote.

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FX Forward Points Explained: Rate Differentials, Swaps and the Real Cost of Rolling

A practical framework for calculating forward points, reading quotation signs and separating carry from funding, liquidity and basis effects.

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How to interpret COT: net open interest, spread, and publication lag

An increase in net long positions may mask a decrease in net long positions. The COT example is recalculated, differentiating between trader categories and option equivalents, and separating Tuesday's observations from Friday's information.

ETF Premiums and Discounts: iNAV, Execution and Creation Explained

An ETF’s assets can gain while its buyer loses. Recalculate quote-based premiums, creation costs and a shrinking entry premium, while separating cash substitution from cross-border valuation lag.

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Bollinger Squeezes and False Breakouts: Why an Outside Close May Not Clear Resistance

Recalculate a 20-close example to separate Bollinger bandwidth, %b and structural resistance. See why expanding bands are not independent confirmation, what waiting costs and where data or execution can invalidate the setup.

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Why a Shrinking MACD Histogram Does Not Confirm a Trend Reversal

A rising price can produce smaller positive MACD bars. A full 12, 26, 9 calculation separates zero crossings, divergence and structural confirmation.

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Futures Basis, Term Structure and Roll Return: What Actually Changes Your P&L?

A stronger basis need not mean rising prices, and a roll spread is not an immediate loss. Work through contract-level profit, hedge outcomes and the limits of convergence and continuous charts.

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Why a Currency Can Rise After a Rate Cut: The Surprise and the Expected Path

Calculate a policy surprise, distinguish monthly overnight-rate pricing from the post-meeting rate, and test whether relative rate expectations explain a currency's rise after a cut.

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Why Gold and the Dollar Can Rise Together: Currency Returns and Correlation Windows

Recalculate gold returns in renminbi and euros, separate currency translation from gold demand, and learn why real yields, observation windows and investment products change the relationship.

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Why VWAP Resets: Sessions, Volume Data and Conflicting Chart Signals

The same stock can sit above one VWAP and below another. Worked examples explain session resets, premarket volume, bar approximations, anchors and execution benchmarks.

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ATR Position Sizing: Contract Value, Trading Costs and Gap Risk

A two-ATR stop defines a price distance, not a guaranteed loss. Work through stock, futures and FX examples to calculate quantity, costs and execution risk.

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August CPI Becomes a Key Variable as Fed Rate Hike Expectations for September Rise

Waller: The Fed's September rate decision will depend heavily on August CPI; a stable U.S. labor market and rising services-sector price pressures are strengthening expectations for a rate hike...

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Gnosis Pay Rewards Tiers 2026: GNO Holdings & Spending Caps Explained

Gnosis Pay rewards tiers explained: compare GNO holdings, cashback rates, OG NFT bonuses, weekly spending caps, card limits, and maximum weekly rewards in 2026.

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U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, Fed Policy Outlook Comes Into Focus

Trump said the latest round of U.S. strikes on Iran would not last long; the Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity increased slightly in recent weeks, while prices rose moderately...

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How to Read Trading Volume: Relative Volume, Divergences and Open Interest

Learn what trading volume really measures, how to calculate same-time relative volume, interpret price-volume divergences and open interest, confirm breakouts, and avoid common backtest errors across forex, stocks, gold and futures.

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US Government Avoids Shutdown Risk; Geopolitical Game in the Strait of Hormuz Escalates

US House passes a stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown; the US launches a new round of strikes against Iran, with Trump calling the action appropriate...

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How to Draw Support and Resistance Zones and Spot False Breakouts

Learn to draw support and resistance zones, use ATR and bar closes to confirm breakouts, assess retests, volume and open interest, and identify false breakouts.

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Moving Averages Beyond Crossovers: How to Read SMA, EMA, Trend Probability and Invalidation

A practical framework for using SMA and EMA across forex, gold, stocks and futures, with volatility filters, confirmation, invalidation and robust backtesting.

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Bessent and Warsh Address Macro Growth and Fiscal Consolidation; Expectations for a BOJ September Rate Hike Heat Up

Warsh: Economic growth potential may be underestimated; Japan expected to take measures to boost the yen...

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How to Read Candlestick Charts: OHLC, Trend, Volume and False Breakouts

A practical guide to reading candle bodies, wicks and OHLC data, placing patterns in trend context, using volume correctly and filtering false breakouts across FX, stocks, gold and futures.

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US and European Central Banks Focus on Inflation Risks; Canada Expands Scope of 50% Counter-Tariffs on the US

Federal Reserve officials gather at Jackson Hole to warn of inflation risks; Canada expands its 50% counter-tariffs on the US, adding copper wire and charcoal...

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U.S.-Iran Standoff Intensifies; Navigation Through the Strait of Hormuz Reaches Deadlock

Trump: No timetable for when Iran will return to negotiations; Iran states the Strait of Hormuz will not open unless the U.S. accepts relevant conditions...

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US-Iran Economic War Escalates as Risks to Oil Supply and US Inflation Rise

Iran condemns new US sanctions; the United States approves the early sale of winter-grade gasoline to ease pressure on fuel prices...

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US-Iran Economic War Escalates as Oil Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz Resumes

Trump announces the toughest economic sanctions ever imposed on Iran; the United States launches an operation to facilitate oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz...

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US-Iran Talks Stall as the Strait of Hormuz and Rate-Cut Expectations Take Center Stage

Trump orders his negotiating team to suspend contact with Iran; traders are hedging against the risk of the Federal Reserve shifting to rate cuts in 2027...

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US-Iran Tensions Deteriorate Again, Weighing on the Yen and US Treasuries

An Iranian official said Iran had set a deadline for the United States to fully implement the memorandum of understanding; Japanese government bonds came under heavy selling pressure...

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Sovereignty Dispute Over the Strait of Hormuz Escalates, Cooling U.S. Consumer Spending Weighs on Rate-Cut Expectations

Trump claims he will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory; U.S. consumer confidence falls for the first time in three months as inflation concerns intensify...

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Iran Adopts a Harder Military Stance as Risks to Crude Oil Supplies Continue to Rise

Iran warns that the conflict could escalate if its conditions are not met; Iranian officials reiterate that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed...

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Iran’s Military Reshuffle Sends a Hardline Signal, Heightening Oil Market Risks as the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens

Mojtaba reshuffles Iran’s military leadership as Tehran prepares for a prolonged regional conflict; the IEA says the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to reopen...

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The Strait of Hormuz Deadlock Persists as Inflation Complicates Fed Rate-Cut Expectations

The U.S. must accept Iran’s conditions in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Goolsbee: The biggest concern remains excessively high inflation, rather than a weakening labor market...

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US-Iran Tensions Flare Again Over Strait of Hormuz as BOJ Signals Potential Rate Hikes

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war operating conditions; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983...

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US-Iran Talks Remain Deadlocked as Weak Payrolls Trigger Market Repricing

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Iran is not currently negotiating with the United States; US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July...

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Trump Addresses Strait and Tariffs

Trump Says Strait Agreement Has Not Been Reached, Imposes Tariffs on Polysilicon...

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Draft Hormuz Strait Deal Reached, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise Again

Iran and Oman finalize a draft agreement on the Strait of Hormuz; Cook: If inflation does not ease, I will be prepared to support a rate hike......

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Iran Signals Easing in Negotiations, Easing Supply Pressures in Oil Markets May Follow

Iran has softened its stance and is considering charging European countries fees for maintaining the Strait of Hormuz; OPEC crude oil production recovered further in July......

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Trump Bets on a Final Chance for Talks as Japan Steps Up Yen Intervention

Trump says talks with Iran represent the final opportunity; Japan may have spent $36.5 billion last Friday to support the yen, signaling an escalation in intervention efforts...

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U.S.-Iran Military Conflict Paused as Japan and U.S. Move Toward Joint Yen Intervention

Trump says he has agreed to call off strikes against Iran; Japan's finance minister is set to announce joint U.S.-Japan intervention in the foreign-exchange market to support the yen...

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Japan Suspected of Intervening in FX Market as Spillover Risks from the U.S.-Iran Conflict Rise

The yen rebounded more than 3%; a port near the Suez Canal was attacked, raising concerns that the U.S.-Iran conflict could open a new front...

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U.S.-Iran Military Tensions Intensify as Expectations of a Hawkish Fed Shift Rise

Trump again threatened to strike Iran; Waugh: The Fed will act without hesitation to address inflation......

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U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate Sharply as Risks Surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Persist

The informal ceasefire collapsed as Iran launched missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan; Oman proposed a new mechanism for jointly managing the Strait of Hormuz......

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Highlights Details

Trump says the U.S. is prepared to launch a large-scale military operation if talks with Iran fail; oil prices fall 1% to a one-week low.

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U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Mediation Continues as Energy Transportation Risks and Policy Uncertainty Intersect

U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Mediation Continues as Energy Transportation Risks and Policy Uncertainty Intersect

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U.S.-Iran Tensions Persist as Tariff Escalation Intersects with Energy Supply Expectations

Trump says he is close to deciding on a "large-scale strike" against Iran; the United States announces new tariffs effective July 24.

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Rising Middle East Conflict Risks Accompanied by U.S. Government Shutdown Concerns and Hawkish BOJ Signals

Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants; the weakening yen is intensifying inflation risks, with reports suggesting the Bank of Japan is open to a faster pace of interest rate hikes.

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Hopes for a Middle East Ceasefire Emerge as U.S. Tariff Escalation Adds to Energy Risks

Reports suggest that Iran was the first to propose a 10-day ceasefire, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would consider all available options in response to the latest U.S. tariff measures.

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Ceasefire Hopes Fail to Ease Middle East Risks as Escalating Tariffs and Oil Supply Concerns Persist

A senior Iranian official said mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran; the United States announced an additional 50% tariff on selected Canadian products......

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Middle East Conflict Continues to Escalate, Fueling Oil Supply Concerns and Interest Rate Pressure

The U.S. Energy Secretary said military operations against Iran will continue; Hammack: U.S. inflation remains too high......

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Middle East Tensions Escalate Further as Hawkish Fed Remarks Reinforce Rate Hike Expectations

The U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes, marking the fifth consecutive night of attacks on Iran; Dallas Fed President Logan said she supports a moderate rate hike to bring inflation down......

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Trump Considers Expanding Military Strikes, While Unexpected PPI Decline Fails to Ease Policy Divergence

Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations against Iran; U.S. June PPI posted its largest decline in 14 months, but inflation risks remain tilted to the upside......

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U.S. Resumes Strikes on Iran, Cooling CPI Fails to Ease Energy and Rate Pressures

The U.S. Central Command confirmed a new round of strikes against Iran; U.S. inflation slowed more than expected in June, but escalating tensions in the Middle East kept markets pricing in the possibility of another rate hike this year...

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U.S. Plans Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports, Core Inflation Pressure Tests Fed Policy

The U.S. military will impose a naval blockade on Iran; Waller: A rate hike may be needed soon to curb core inflation......

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U.S.-Iran Conflict Resurges, Hormuz Strait Crisis Puts Oil Markets on Alert

The U.S. launched a third round of strikes against Iran this week; commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply......

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Ceasefire Deal Nears Collapse, Oil Prices and Inflation Risks Rise Again

Trump resumes military strikes against Iran; shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plunges, approaching a standstill...

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Trump Declares Iran Deal Dead as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Trump declares the Iran agreement void, triggering renewed Middle East tensions and a sell-off in risk assets; Fed minutes reveal growing concerns over persistent inflation...

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U.S. Launches Strikes on Iranian Targets; EIA Lowers Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S. military said it has begun a series of strikes against Iranian targets; the EIA has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for this year and next...

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Policy Divide Emerges Within the Fed, ECB Rate Hike Expectations Remain Alive

Waller says forward guidance remains an important monetary policy tool; Schnabel says the impact of the Iran war has not yet fully subsided...

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U.S.-Iran Talks to Resume This Week, OPEC+ Agrees to Increase Output from August

U.S. and Iran will resume talks in Pakistan this week; OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production quotas starting in August...

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