Why US Farmers Are Struggling Despite Billions in Aid
DevinUS farm income projected to fall. Record government aid masks severe financial strain and collapse risk.
The U.S. agricultural sector faces growing financial stress, with a new forecast from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) projecting a drop in net farm income for 2026. This modest decline, however, is being softened by near-record government payments, which now account for nearly 29% of producers' total earnings.
Without this federal support, the industry's financial picture would be far bleaker, revealing deep-seated economic challenges for American farmers.
USDA Forecast: A Closer Look at the Numbers
According to the USDA's latest data, net farm income—a key barometer of the agricultural economy's health—is forecast to fall by 0.7% to $153.4 billion in 2026 compared to the previous year.
When adjusted for inflation, the decline is more pronounced, with income projected to decrease by $4.1 billion, or 2.6%.
The outlook varies by commodity:
• Crops: Cash receipts are expected to rise for corn, remain steady for soybeans, and fall for wheat.
• Livestock: Overall receipts are projected to drop, driven by lower egg and milk prices, though cattle receipts are forecast to continue increasing.
This data, typically released three times a year, incorporated delayed findings from a December report that was postponed due to a federal government shutdown. Agricultural economists note this delay has made it more difficult to assess the full extent of financial stress in the sector.
Government Payments Mask Deeper Economic Strain
Federal subsidies are playing an outsized role in stabilizing farm finances. The USDA projects producers will receive $30.5 billion in direct government payments in 2025 and a staggering $44.3 billion in 2026. These figures exclude additional payouts from federal crop insurance programs.
These support levels are approaching those seen in 2020 and 2021, a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and major trade disruptions. The USDA attributes the high payments to Farm Bill programs triggered by falling crop prices, as well as ongoing supplemental and disaster assistance.
The impact of this aid is dramatic. Without government payments, net farm income would plummet by nearly 12% to $109.1 billion, according to agency data.
"Government payments are doing a lot of the work in supporting crop producers," said Wesley Davis, a partner at the agricultural economics consultancy Meridian Agribusiness Advisors.
The Root Causes: Low Prices, High Costs, and Trade Woes
Even with historic levels of federal aid, many farmers are struggling to stay afloat as they take on record levels of debt. Economists, farmers, and lawmakers warn that current support may not be enough to counter a wave of economic pressures, including:
• Persistently low crop prices
• A global grain glut
• Rising operational costs
• Lost export sales resulting from Trump-era trade and economic policies
Rising Debt and Warnings of a Potential Collapse
The growing dependency on federal aid has raised alarms. The chair of the U.S. Senate's agriculture committee stated on Tuesday that many farmers are already suffering heavy losses.
In a separate warning, more than two dozen former USDA officials and industry leaders cautioned lawmakers that U.S. agriculture is at risk of a "widespread collapse," citing the lingering effects of the Trump administration's policies as a key factor. As farmers rely more on federal support to pay their bills, the underlying stability of the sector remains a critical concern for policymakers.
