U.S. Government Shutdown Nears Record, Central Bank Officials Make Cautious Remarks
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U.S. Government shutdown nears record; Goolsbee: No decision yet on December rate cut......
[Quick Facts]
1. U.S. Government shutdown nears record, food aid benefits halved.
2. Mass military buildup, threat of ground invasion—Is the U.S. really preparing for military action against Venezuela?
3. Khamenei: Iran won't consider cooperating with the U.S. anytime soon.
4. Cook: Risk of labor market weakening outweighs inflation rise.
5. Goolsbee: No decision yet on December rate cut.
6. Nagel: Eurozone economic outlook unchanged, but all options remain on table for December meeting.
[News Details]
U.S. Government shutdown nears record, food aid benefits halved
The U.S. federal government shutdown entered its 34th day, just one day shy of the 35-day record for the longest shutdown in history. The Trump administration announced on the same day that it would use emergency funds to maintain half of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for the month, though some states may take weeks or even months to restore full distributions. SNAP payments were suspended on November 1st due to depleted funds. This federally administered food assistance program, overseen by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has a monthly expenditure exceeding $8 billion. According to U.S. media reports, this marks the first time in the 60-year history of SNAP that benefits have been halted, even during previous government shutdowns.
Mass military buildup, threat of ground invasion—Is the U.S. really preparing for military action against Venezuela?
In recent months, the U.S. government has deployed the largest military presence in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela in over 30 years under the pretext of "combating Latin American drug busts." At the same time, the U.S. military has carried out a series of upgrades to military bases and civilian airports in the Caribbean region.
Imagery data and vessel/flight tracking information show that since August, the U.S. has deployed at least 13 warships, 5 support vessels, and 1 nuclear submarine to the Caribbean. Additionally, U.S. military air activity near Venezuela's coastline has significantly increased. The U.S. government has repeatedly claimed it is considering ground military operations against Venezuelan drug cartels. However, on October 31st, U.S. President Trump stated he had not yet decided whether to launch attacks on targets inside Venezuela. On November 2nd, when asked again about plans to strike Venezuela, Trump avoided answering the question.
Khamenei: Iran won't consider cooperating with the U.S. anytime soon
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in a public speech in Tehran on the 3rd that Iran will not consider cooperation requests from the U.S. in the near future. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, Khamenei emphasized that the differences between Iran and the U.S. are fundamental, not tactical, highlighting a deep conflict of interests between the two nations. The U.S. must completely halt its support for Israel, withdraw its military bases from the Middle East, and cease interfering in Iran's internal affairs. Only if these three conditions are met will Iran consider cooperation with the U.S.—and even then, not in the near term.
Cook: Risk of labor market weakening outweighs inflation rise
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech on Monday that policy is not on a preset path. Currently, risks at both ends of the Fed's dual mandate rise, with the risk of further labor market weakening greater than that of rising inflation. Every meeting, including the December meeting, remains an open decision.
As the impact of Trump's tariff policies filters into the economy, she expects inflation to remain high over the next year. Nevertheless, theoretically, the impact of tariffs on prices should be a one-time increase.
Goolsbee: No decision yet on December rate cut
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo Finance on Monday that the overall economy is strong, but certain sectors are showing weakness, with consumer spending being a key driver of economic momentum. He expressed concern about inflation, which has exceeded the target level for four and a half years, with trends moving in the wrong direction—leaving him caution about whether to cut rates in December. The threshold for a rate cut is now higher than it was before the last two Fed meetings. Interest rates should decline as inflation falls, and he noted that rates will eventually stabilize at much lower levels than current ones. Despite ongoing concerns, some key labor market indicators remain stable.
Nagel: Eurozone economic outlook unchanged, but all options remain on table for December meeting
European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech on Monday that since the release of the latest economic forecasts in September, there have been no fundamental changes in the data. In December, the ECB will make data-driven decisions based on the new projections. Therefore, all options remain on the table, which he believes is the most appropriate approach given the many uncertainties.
[Today's Focus]
UTC+8 11:30 RBA November Interest Rate Decision
UTC+8 12:30 RBA Governor Bullock Holds Monetary Policy Press Conference
UTC+8 15:40 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
UTC+8 15:55 – ECB Governing Council Member Patsalides Speaks
UTC+8 19:40 – BoE Deputy Governor Breeden Speaks
UTC+8 23:00 – U.S. September JOLTS Job Openings
TBD– U.S. September Factory Orders (MoM)
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