Wall Street Banks Warn of USD Weakening in 2026 as Global Rate Divergence Takes Hold

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Summary:

Major investment banks project a weakening U.S. dollar in 2026 due to continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and stronger performance from global peers, though dissenting voices argue AI-driven U.S. growth may support dollar resilience....

Federal Reserve Policy Shift Fuels Dollar Bearishness

As the Federal Reserve continues its policy pivot by cutting interest rates three times already in 2025 and potentially two more times in 2026 leading Wall Street institutions are sounding alarms over the future trajectory of the U.S. dollar. Investment giants including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan have aligned in their view that the dollar is likely to lose ground against major currencies like the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen in the coming year.

The rationale is causally linked to monetary divergence. While the Fed is easing policy amid cooling job growth and persistent inflation, other central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are holding firm or even contemplating rate hikes. This divergence encourages capital flows away from the U.S. toward higher-yielding assets elsewhere, thereby applying downward pressure on the dollar’s value.

Morgan Stanley Forecasts 5% USD Drop by Mid-2026

Morgan Stanley stands out with a particularly stark prediction: the dollar may drop as much as 5% in the first half of 2026. JPMorgan’s global macro research head, Luis Oganes, echoed similar concerns, citing that the structural outlook appears increasingly unfavorable for the dollar. This is a consequence not only of Fed policy but also of shifting global capital dynamics and investor positioning.

The ripple effects of a weakening dollar are multifaceted. On one hand, U.S. exports are poised to benefit as dollar-denominated goods become cheaper for international buyers. This supports the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to reduce trade deficits. However, a weaker dollar would also raise import costs, potentially contributing to a rebound in consumer inflation a dynamic the Fed is already trying to manage.

For multinational U.S. corporations, the depreciation of the dollar offers a potential windfall. Revenues earned overseas, when converted back to dollars, become more profitable, boosting bottom lines. This creates a correlative advantage: the weaker the dollar, the greater the earnings lift for companies with global exposure.

Emerging Markets and Carry Trade Revival

Emerging markets are positioned to benefit even more. The decline in the dollar’s value fuels interest in “carry trades,” in which investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the USD and invest in higher-yielding emerging market currencies. According to analysts at JPMorgan and Bank of America, the Brazilian real, South Korean won, and Chinese yuan are among the currencies expected to strengthen as capital flows return to these markets.

The revival of the carry trade is causally tied to lower U.S. interest rates and global rate spreads. When borrowing in USD becomes cheaper and alternatives yield more, the strategy becomes increasingly attractive especially after a decade-long pause due to the Fed's aggressive tightening from 2016 to 2022.

Optimism for G10 Currencies: CAD and AUD in Focus

Goldman Sachs highlights that G10 currencies such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Australian dollar (AUD) are also gaining investor favor, bolstered by better-than-expected economic data. The firm argues that the global macro backdrop is shifting in favor of non-USD assets, particularly as regions outside the U.S. begin to re-accelerate economically.

Goldman’s view suggests a correlation between global growth divergence and USD weakness: when the rest of the world accelerates while the U.S. cools, the dollar historically tends to underperform.

Dissenting Views: Citigroup and Standard Chartered Remain Bullish

Not all analysts agree with the bearish consensus. Citigroup and Standard Chartered argue that the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience, driven in part by massive investment in artificial intelligence and automation, may defy expectations. They believe that capital inflows driven by AI expansion and the robust performance of U.S. equities could offset the dollar’s structural vulnerabilities.

This view reflects a different causal mechanism: technological innovation and equity market momentum sustain investor confidence and inflows, supporting the dollar despite rate cuts.

Furthermore, the Fed has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast upward, even while leaving room for additional rate reductions. This reinforces Citigroup’s forecast of a possible dollar rebound by mid-2026, especially if inflation remains sticky and the labor market avoids a steep downturn.

Valuation Warning: Is the Dollar Overpriced?

Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos and Tim Baker warn that the dollar may already be overvalued. In a late-November note, they described the greenback as benefitting from an “unexpectedly resilient” U.S. economy and soaring equity markets, but cautioned that valuation pressures and capital reallocation may soon reverse this strength.

If realized, such a shift would mark the end of the dollar’s unusual decade-long bull cycle. The potential causal endpoint is clear: once rate advantages, growth divergence, and equity strength fade or reverse, so too will investor appetite for holding dollar-denominated assets.

The outlook for the U.S. dollar in 2026 is increasingly uncertain, caught between the gravity of monetary easing and the buoyancy of AI-led growth. While major banks warn of a decline driven by capital outflows and global rate divergence, others bet on America's innovation engine to keep attracting investment. As the Fed prepares its next move, the dollar’s trajectory will serve as a barometer for broader global economic realignments and perhaps a signpost for the end of an era in currency dominance.

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