US-Iran “Two-Day Plan” Emerges as Risk of Military Strikes Remains
FastBull FeaturedSummary:
The US could launch a major strike against Iran as early as the day after the midterm elections; Iran's foreign minister has outlined a “two-day plan”...
Headlines
1. OPEC+ Representatives: Major Oil Producers Plan to Keep December Production Quotas Unchanged
2. Iranian Foreign Minister Sets Preconditions for Talks: Lift Oil Export Restrictions and Unfreeze All Frozen Assets
3. US Midterm Election Campaign Enters Final Stretch, With Two Records Broken
4. Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban Through the End of January 2027
5. Iranian Foreign Minister Unveils “Two-Day Plan”: US to Fulfill Commitments First, With Strait of Hormuz to Reopen the Following Day
6. US Reportedly Notifies Gulf Allies of Plans for Major Strike on Iran the Day After Midterm Elections
7. Fed's Logan: Fed Needs at Least Two More Rate Hikes, Bringing the Cumulative Increase to 50 Basis Points
Detailed
OPEC+ Representatives: Major Oil Producers Plan to Keep December Production Quotas Unchanged
Two OPEC+ representatives said that major OPEC+ members plan to keep oil production quotas unchanged in December, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to affect the group's output.
The two representatives said ahead of Sunday's video conference that a seven-member group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia had reached an agreement in principle to maintain the current production targets. The meeting is expected to formalize the agreement, in line with the roadmap established earlier this year.
OPEC+ had previously indicated that it would pause further quota increases through the end of this year. The group had earlier agreed to a series of modest production increases over the six months through August. These increases were largely symbolic, as the war involving Iran disrupted oil production in the Persian Gulf region. In theory, however, they could offset some of the production cuts introduced in 2023.
The group's next major decision will be whether to restore another portion of the production capacity that was suspended in 2022. This is a complicated process, and its direction will likely depend on the results of an ongoing assessment of member countries' production capacity. OPEC+ will finalize its policy for next year at a full ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29.
Iranian Foreign Minister Sets Preconditions for Talks: Lift Oil Export Restrictions and Unfreeze All Frozen Assets
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that Iran was demanding the lifting of restrictions on its oil exports and the unfreezing of all Iranian assets, including funds held in accounts in Qatar. He outlined a series of conditions that must be met before negotiations can begin.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Araghchi said the conditions included lifting sanctions imposed after the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum, reducing the US military presence in the region, lifting restrictions on Iranian oil exports once again, and unfreezing all Iranian assets, including funds held in Qatari accounts.
He also said Tehran wanted the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz jointly designated by Iran and the Omani authorities to be recognized as the only permitted passage. In addition, Iran was demanding an end to all conflicts in the region, including the fighting in Lebanon.
US Midterm Election Campaign Enters Final Stretch, With Two Records Broken
On October 31 local time, just three days before the US midterm elections, the race between the two parties for control of Congress entered its final stretch.
According to the latest figures released that day, the election has already set two notable records. More than 51 million Americans have voted early, surpassing the previous record for a midterm election. Total federal election spending is also expected to reach $11.9 billion, setting another record for a midterm election.
Meanwhile, legal disputes over voter eligibility, candidate participation and the certification of election results continue to mount, with several cases seeing new developments just days before voting.
Record voter participation, enormous campaign spending and a growing number of legal disputes not only underscore the intensity of this election but also reflect broader changes unfolding in American society and politics.
Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban Through the End of January 2027
According to the Russian government, Moscow has extended its ban on diesel exports by producers through the end of January 2027. The relevant decree has been signed, extending the restrictions on direct producers exporting diesel, marine fuel and gasoil from Russia through January 31, 2027, inclusive.
The government said the decision was intended to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market.
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on October 30 that, alongside the extension of the broader diesel export ban, Russia was preparing exemptions for certain suppliers to allow them to sell fuel on international markets. Such exemptions were introduced in October, and further relaxations are also planned for November.
Iranian Foreign Minister Unveils “Two-Day Plan”: US to Fulfill Commitments First, With Strait of Hormuz to Reopen the Following Day
On November 1 local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Iranian delegation's visit to Qatar was part of ongoing communications between Iran and mediators, including Qatar and Pakistan.
The proposal currently under discussion is broadly similar to Iran's previously proposed “seven-day plan.” Mediators have held multiple rounds of consultations and put forward suggestions that are considered more feasible and practical than the original proposal. Araghchi said one of Qatar's suggestions was to shorten the seven-day period to five days or even less.
Iran has now agreed to a “two-day plan”: on the first day, the United States would take a series of steps to fulfill its commitments; on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and maritime traffic would return to its previous state.
He said that if the United States adhered to the two-day plan, it could pave the way for peace and restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Only after Washington fulfilled its commitments and the strait reopened would the path be clear for Iran and the United States to resume negotiations.
Iran's conditions for US compliance include establishing a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing Iranian assets, ending regional conflicts including the war in Lebanon, lifting the naval blockade, granting exemptions for Iranian oil exports, and removing new US sanctions imposed after the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.
US Reportedly Notifies Gulf Allies of Plans for Major Strike on Iran the Day After Midterm Elections
US media outlets cited three senior Gulf officials on Friday as saying that the administration of President Donald Trump had informed its Gulf allies that it was preparing to launch a brief but intense airstrike campaign against Iran as early as November 4, the day after the US midterm elections.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper made a rare visit to the White House on Thursday. He briefed officials alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, with discussions reportedly covering military options and the possibility of resuming large-scale combat operations.
Trump administration officials have reportedly told leaders of Gulf Arab states to prepare for a potential short but intense military operation in the aftermath of the midterm elections.
Trump also said that the United States had spent very little on the Iran issue and had already recouped all of its investment through its operations in Venezuela. He claimed that Washington had gained hundreds of billions of dollars from those operations, generating returns many times over.
Trump added that the United States was negotiating with Iran and that talks were continuing because Tehran was willing to engage. He said Washington had time to wait for a resolution.
Fed's Logan: Fed Needs at Least Two More Rate Hikes, Bringing the Cumulative Increase to 50 Basis Points
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday that, given the current economic outlook, the Federal Reserve would need at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes, bringing the cumulative increase in the policy rate to 50 basis points. The Fed should then pause and assess economic and financial conditions before deciding on its next move.
Logan took part in this week's 10-2 FOMC vote in favor of keeping the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%.
She noted that the outlook for technology investment and geopolitical developments were contributing to financial market volatility. In this environment, gradual policy adjustments would help households, businesses and market participants adapt to higher interest rates while reducing the risk of an unnecessary deterioration in economic activity.
Logan also emphasized that the Fed should communicate its policy objectives clearly, a position that differs from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's view that such forward guidance should be provided only during periods of crisis.
She argued that current financial conditions were still supporting economic growth, while higher long-term borrowing costs primarily reflected investors' expectations of stronger economic growth and higher interest rates, rather than acting as an independent drag on the economy.
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