US-Iran Talks Signal a Possible Shift as Iran’s Seven Conditions Shape the Path Forward
FastBull FeaturedSummary:
The US says it is ready to negotiate with Iran; Iran has presented the US with seven conditions for negotiations...
【Highlights】
1. US Says It Is Ready to Negotiate with Iran
2. Iran Sets Out Seven Conditions for Negotiations with the US
3. Iran Says It Has Not Decided Whether to Withdraw from the NPT, Depending on US Actions
4. Iran Warns Any US Attack Will Trigger Retaliation
5. BOJ Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points to 1.25%, Highest Level in 31 Years
6. Saudi Aramco Plans to Withhold Crude Supplies from European Refiners Next Month
7. US Investor Sentiment Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 2025
【Details】
US Says It Is Ready to Negotiate with Iran
On September 19 local time, a senior Iranian official who spoke on condition of anonymity told China Central Television (CCTV) that Qatar and Pakistan, acting as mediators, had informed Iran that the United States was ready to negotiate and reach an agreement and was serious about advancing the process.
The official said that, for its part, Iran was also prepared to resume implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum within days, provided that the United States returned to the memorandum and fulfilled its terms. However, Iran is seeking concrete and credible guarantees that it will not be attacked again.
The United States had previously indicated that it was no longer interested in the memorandum. Nevertheless, its substantive provisions remain critically important to Iran in any future agreement.
Iran does not seek war, the official said, arguing that the conflict serves neither Iran’s interests nor those of other countries in the region, the United States or the broader international community.
Iran Sets Out Seven Conditions for Negotiations with the US
On the evening of September 19 local time, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran had presented the US government with seven conditions for opening any negotiations.
Iran’s message was clear: “If the United States wants to escape the predicament it created itself and avoid becoming increasingly entangled, it has no choice but to accept Iran’s conditions.”
In an interview that day, Rezaei confirmed that Qatar, acting as a mediator, had conveyed Iran’s conditions for negotiations to the United States and was awaiting a response from US President Donald Trump.
Rezaei said Iran’s conditions include an end to all US military operations against Iran, the unfreezing of Iranian assets and an end to the maritime blockade.
Iran Says It Has Not Decided Whether to Withdraw from the NPT, Depending on US Actions
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told Al Jazeera that Iran had not yet decided whether to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
“We have not yet decided whether to withdraw from the NPT. This issue depends on Washington’s actions,” Rezaei said.
He added that US and Israeli actions had provided Tehran with grounds to withdraw from the treaty. However, he said Iran continued to follow the religious edict, or fatwa, issued by the late Supreme Leader and had not changed its nuclear policy.
Iran Warns Any US Attack Will Trigger Retaliation
On September 20 local time, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said in a statement that intelligence indicated the United States, after holding a joint meeting in a European country, had decided to resume hostile actions against Iran with the tacit approval of certain Middle Eastern countries.
The statement warned that if the United States committed “any mistake” against Iran, all US bases and interests in the region would face sustained, effective and severe attacks without restraint.
Iran also warned regional countries that if they continued to pursue a “two-faced policy” toward Iran and cooperate with its enemies, they would be regarded as accomplices. In that event, they should no longer expect Iran’s armed forces to exercise restraint or tolerance.
BOJ Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points to 1.25%, Highest Level in 31 Years
Last Friday, September 18, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points from 1% to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years and in line with expectations.
The BOJ’s policy board voted 7-2 to raise the policy rate. The central bank said underlying inflation was approaching 2% and financial conditions remained accommodative. It added that it would continue to adjust interest rates in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.
At a press conference, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said producer prices remained elevated, supported by strong demand related to artificial intelligence, a recent recovery in crude oil prices and continued weakness in the yen, providing further support for persistent inflation.
The developments have further strengthened market expectations for additional BOJ rate hikes. Ueda said the central bank needed to act preemptively to contain inflation.
When asked about the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike or consecutive rate increases, Ueda said the BOJ would not rule out any specific policy option in advance. The pace and magnitude of rate hikes would depend on price developments, he said, adding that a slow pace of rate increases is not necessarily always desirable.
Saudi Aramco Plans to Withhold Crude Supplies from European Refiners Next Month
Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Saudi Aramco had notified at least two European refining customers that it would not allocate any crude oil to them next month following an attack on a key pipeline carrying Saudi oil toward the Red Sea.
European customers typically receive Saudi crude under term contracts, which ensure stable monthly supplies. The sources said no crude would be delivered to those customers next month and that the decision applied to all European buyers.
Saudi Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment made outside normal business hours.
European refineries typically receive Saudi crude through the Sidi Kerir terminal on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The pipeline shutdown has triggered panic buying among some Saudi Aramco customers.
Poland’s Orlen SA has issued more than 10 tenders since Friday in an effort to secure alternative supplies.
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report that European members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development imported 577,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Saudi Arabia in June.
US Investor Sentiment Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 2025
A weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that investor sentiment deteriorated further as oil prices remained elevated and the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since 2023, pushing sentiment to its lowest level since 2025.
According to the latest AAII survey released Friday, 53.3% of respondents were bearish, putting the figure above 50%. Only 28.8% were bullish, the lowest level in a year.
Charles Rotblut, vice president of the AAII, said in a statement that the difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investors had fallen to -24.5%. He described the level as unusually low, noting that the spread had remained below its historical average of 6.5% for nine consecutive weeks.
The latest reading was also the lowest since May 2025.
The survey also showed that more than half of respondents were holding higher-than-normal cash allocations, indicating increased investor caution. Among them, 19.1% said their cash holdings were significantly above normal levels.
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