U.S.-Iran Doha Talks Face Uncertainty as Strong U.S. Jobs Report Looms?

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Summary:

U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams head to Doha, while Iran denies any scheduled talks with the U.S.; the U.S. June employment report is expected to remain strong...

Highlights

1. U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams head to Doha, while Iran denies any scheduled talks with the U.S.

2. Iran's deputy foreign minister insists vessels must transit the Strait of Hormuz via Iran-designated routes.

3. Israeli defense minister says the military is prepared to conduct independent military operations against Iran.

4. U.S. Supreme Court rejects Trump's bid to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

5. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve falls to its lowest level since 1983.

6. U.S. June employment report is expected to remain strong.

7. Lagarde: Greater resilience in the European economy gives the ECB more room to adjust interest rates.

Details

U.S. and Iranian Negotiating Teams Head to Doha as Iran Denies Scheduled Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of June 29 (local time) that the United States and Iran would hold talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on June 30. Trump said the U.S. delegation had either already departed or was preparing to leave. He added that the meeting might or might not prove significant, but claimed that the United States had already achieved a military victory, oil prices had declined, and Iran had agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons.

According to previous U.S. media reports, after two days of reciprocal attacks over the weekend, Washington and Tehran agreed to suspend military operations and meet in Doha to resolve disputes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said the U.S. delegation would include Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stressed on June 29 that Iran has no plans to hold talks with the United States at any level in the coming days. He said Iran would send an expert delegation to Doha this week to follow up on relevant issues, but emphasized that the U.S. delegation's visit is unrelated to the Iranian experts' trip.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Insists Vessels Must Use Iran-Designated Routes Through the Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview on the evening of June 29 that all vessels must transit the Strait of Hormuz via routes designated by Iran, warning that Iran would take appropriate action against ships that fail to comply.

Gharibabadi said Iranian and Omani delegations held the first meeting of their joint working group on the Strait of Hormuz earlier that day, discussing future management of the waterway. Iran is willing to coordinate with Oman on new arrangements but opposes the establishment of any alternative shipping routes outside those designated by Iran. He added that Tehran has made its position clear to Muscat and that, should Oman choose not to participate in the new arrangements, Iran will determine the management of the Strait independently.

Israeli Defense Minister Says Military Ready for Independent Action Against Iran

On June 29, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz outlined Israel's latest strategic posture regarding Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza during a closed-door briefing with military correspondents.

Katz stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are fully prepared to conduct independent military operations against Iran and reiterated that Israeli forces will maintain a long-term military presence in southern Lebanon. He revealed that the IDF has already selected potential targets inside Iran and is closely monitoring developments in U.S.-Iran relations.

Katz warned that if Iran launches missiles at Israel, Israel would respond with powerful strikes inside Iran, adding that the two countries could be at war as early as tomorrow. At the same time, he stressed that Israel would not interfere with any actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran.

U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Trump's Bid to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook

On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump cannot dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, firmly upholding the independence of the Federal Reserve and rejecting the Republican president's unprecedented attempt to challenge it.

Last August, Trump sought to remove Cook over unsubstantiated allegations of mortgage fraud. However, the underlying dispute centered on differences over monetary policy. A lower court had previously issued a preliminary injunction preventing Trump's administration from removing Cook until her legal challenge had been resolved. The administration appealed to the Supreme Court to lift the injunction, but the justices denied the request.

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983

According to data from the U.S. Department of Energy, crude oil inventories in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983.

The drawdown was part of an agreement to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the reserve to offset global supply shortages following the Iran conflict and help reduce fuel prices. Strong U.S. crude exports and robust refinery demand have also accelerated inventory declines in recent weeks.

Since the conflict began in late February, total U.S. crude inventories—including both commercial stocks and the SPR—have fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels as of June 19, the lowest level since 1984.

U.S. June Employment Report Expected to Remain Strong

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday that, based on all available indicators, Thursday's employment report is likely to deliver another strong reading.

Hassett added that the productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence in the United States are inherently disinflationary, making the case for additional interest rate hikes less compelling.

Market expectations currently point to nonfarm payroll growth slowing to 110,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

Lagarde: Stronger Economic Resilience Gives the ECB More Flexibility to Adjust Rates

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the eurozone economy appears to have become more resilient to economic shocks, giving the ECB greater flexibility to adjust interest rates without triggering financial stress.

Lagarde noted that this resilience could prove valuable as the eurozone is likely to face more frequent inflationary shocks in the coming years. Policymakers may increasingly face the difficult choice of either looking through temporary price fluctuations or responding with stronger policy action.

Today's Focus

14:45 (UTC+8) France June CPI

15:00 (UTC+8) Switzerland June KOF Leading Indicator

15:30 (UTC+8) ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks

16:40 (UTC+8) ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson speaks

18:40 (UTC+8) Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks

20:00 (UTC+8) Germany June Preliminary CPI (MoM)

20:30 (UTC+8) Canada April GDP

21:30 (UTC+8) ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks

22:00 (UTC+8) U.S. May JOLTS Job Openings

Time TBD U.S.-Iran technical talks

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