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US-Iran Ceasefire Deal on the Brink as Trump Considers Renewing Military Action

FastBull Featured
Summary:

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is hanging by a thread as Washington considers the possibility of resuming military action; Iran’s parliament speaker says the “14-point proposal” is non-negotiable...

Top News

1. US-Iran ceasefire deal hangs by a thread as Washington considers resuming military action
2. Serious disagreements remain between the US and Iran over the handling of enriched uranium
3. Trump considers possible military action against Cuba
4. OPEC output falls to the lowest level in 20 years as the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts exports
5. The US plans to release 53.5 million barrels of strategic crude oil between June and August
6. Iran’s parliament speaker: The “14-point proposal” is irreplaceable

News Details

US-Iran Ceasefire Deal on the Brink as Washington Considers Renewing Military Action
The US-Iran ceasefire entered an especially fragile phase on Monday after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal, describing the agreement as being on “serious life support.”
According to a source familiar with the matter, Iran is demanding that Washington lift the maritime blockade and ease sanctions while insisting on retaining a degree of control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump did not specify whether the US would resume military strikes against Iran, though he previously warned that action would be taken if Iranian leaders failed to accept his conditions. Three US officials revealed that after Sunday’s talks with Iran reached a deadlock, Trump planned to meet with his national security team on Monday to discuss the next steps in the Iran conflict, including the possibility of renewed military action.
Serious Disagreements Persist Between the US and Iran Over Enriched Uranium
On the 11th local time, an Iranian official said that major disagreements remain between Iran and the United States regarding the handling of enriched uranium, the duration of any suspension of uranium enrichment activities, and war compensation issues.
The official stated that the US proposal demands access to Iran’s uranium enriched to 60% purity and opposes transferring the material to Russia, instead suggesting that it be moved to a third country. The official added that Iran opposes sending enriched uranium abroad but is prepared to dilute it under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Trump Considers Possible Military Action Against Cuba
Trump has reportedly grown “increasingly frustrated” that the Cuban government has not collapsed despite sustained US pressure and has repeatedly questioned advisers about how Cuba’s leadership has managed to remain in power.
Sources said Trump’s impatience has prompted the Pentagon to accelerate planning for possible military action against Cuba, although no final decision has yet been made.
OPEC Output Falls to the Lowest Level in 20 Years as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Exports
Affected by the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC’s daily oil production fell by 830,000 barrels in April to 20.04 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than two decades.
Kuwait saw the largest decline after experiencing a full month of export disruptions, while Saudi Arabia and Iraq also reduced production. The United Arab Emirates was the only Gulf producer to increase output, as its export routes bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Venezuela and Libya also raised production.
US Plans to Release 53.5 Million Barrels of Strategic Crude Oil From June to August
To ease oil price pressures caused by the Iran conflict, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has allocated 53.5 million barrels of crude oil to commodity trader Trafigura Group and refiners including Marathon Petroleum.
The crude will be released to the market between June and August. With the peak summer driving season approaching in the United States, refineries are expected to boost production to meet surging gasoline demand, and the government hopes the move will help lower fuel prices.
This release marks the second-largest in history and forms part of a coordinated global effort led by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to reduce oil prices. Last week, the US released a record 1.22 million barrels per day under the same framework. The Trump administration has pledged to release a total of 172 million barrels through a so-called “exchange program,” under which companies borrow crude oil and later return it in kind. So far, the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker: The “14-Point Proposal” Is Irreplaceable
Early on the 12th local time, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on social media that there is no alternative other than accepting the rights of the Iranian people as stipulated in Iran’s “14-point proposal.”
He said any other approach would be futile and would only lead to repeated failures. He also warned that the longer the situation drags on, the greater the cost borne by American taxpayers.

Today’s Focus

17:00 (UTC+8) Germany May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
15:15 (UTC+8) New York Fed President John Williams speaks
18:40 (UTC+8) ECB Executive Board member Elderson speaks
20:15 (UTC+8) US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending April 25
20:30 (UTC+8) US April CPI00:00 EIA releases Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report
01:00 (UTC+8) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
01:30 (UTC+8) Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods speaks
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