Trump Says China to Resume Major U.S. Soybean Buys, But Market Stays Wary

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Summary:

President Trump announced that China will begin purchasing “tremendous” amounts of American soybeans immediately following his summit with Xi Jinping...

Verbal Commitments Spark Skepticism in Commodity Markets

President Donald Trump stated Thursday that China will “immediately” begin buying large quantities of U.S. soybeans, following his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. While Trump described the meeting as “amazing” and characterized the agricultural terms as expansive, market reaction suggests that optimism has not yet translated into confidence.

The Chinese commerce ministry confirmed an agreement to broaden agricultural trade but stopped short of specifying soybeans. Without firm tonnage or purchase timelines, traders remained hesitant to interpret the announcement as a fundamental shift in trade flows.

Soybean Prices React with Volatility

In Chicago, soybean futures initially plunged as much as 2.2%, the steepest intraday decline in nearly four months before recovering some losses. Earlier in the week, futures had rallied on expectations of a major trade announcement after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at “substantial” Chinese purchases. That rally was abruptly undercut as the post-summit rhetoric lacked immediate confirmations of large-volume deals.

According to Joe Davis of Futures International LLC, markets had anticipated a commitment of 5 to 10 million metric tons of soybeans a scale that would indicate a serious reset in trade relations. “Until we see actual cargoes purchased, I expect choppy markets to continue,” Davis noted.

Strategic Leverage and Diversified Sourcing from China

Soybeans have long played a dual role in U.S.-China trade talks both as a politically sensitive export from Trump’s key electoral base and as a diplomatic bargaining chip for Beijing. Over the past year, China has scaled back U.S. purchases and diversified its sourcing strategy by importing more from Brazil and Argentina. This approach allowed Beijing to maintain leverage in negotiations and mitigate overreliance on U.S. supply.

Just prior to the summit, China made its first soybean purchases of the current season a gesture seen by some as preemptive goodwill, yet the volume was limited and far below last year’s $12 billion benchmark in trade value. Analysts now question whether China’s reentry into the U.S. soybean market will be strategic and symbolic rather than systemic.

Shrinking Window Adds to Pressure

With harvest season underway and existing contracts in place with South American suppliers, the time left in 2025 to finalize and fulfill large soybean orders is narrowing. This seasonal constraint compounds skepticism about whether Beijing’s promise will yield sizable orders or merely limited, face-saving transactions.

Trump confirmed that the soybean terms were part of a broader framework agreement that had been negotiated in Malaysia prior to the Busan summit. While he alluded to additional farm product purchases, no official joint statement has been issued with definitive purchase amounts, timelines, or monitoring mechanisms an omission that tempers investor enthusiasm.

The soybean announcement serves more as a political and diplomatic gesture than a clear signal of trade normalization. Trump’s emphasis on “tremendous” purchases aligns with his domestic messaging strategy, particularly aimed at U.S. farmers, but global traders remain focused on actual shipment data, not rhetoric. With futures already pricing in some of the optimism and without hard commitments from Beijing, the market will remain volatile until real contracts and cargo flows confirm a meaningful recovery in U.S.-China agricultural trade.

Source: Reuters

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