Russia’s Crude Exports Rebound With Key Flows Recovering
Dark CurrentRussia’s oil exports rose for the first time in four weeks, with flows from key ports climbing to multi-week highs.
Russia’s oil exports rose for the first time in four weeks, with flows from key ports climbing to multi-week highs.
Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to April 20 rebounded to 3.21 million barrels a day, recovering about one-quarter of the losses seen over the previous three weeks. Flows remain about 240,000 barrels a day, or 7%, below the recent peak seen a month ago.
The increase was driven by higher shipments from key ports — Kozmino in the Pacific and Primorsk in the Baltic. The number of tankers hauling ESPO crude from Kozmino was the highest in five weeks, while departures from Primorsk were the most in three weeks.
The uptick comes as US officials signal they are losing patience with the pace of peacemaking in Ukraine, raising concerns that the administration will abandon sanctions, including those targeting Russia’s oil exports.
The White House has signaled that it’s comfortable with almost all Russia’s demands in Ukraine. These include recognition of the territories it has seized from Ukraine since 2014, the easing of sanctions, a suspension of arms deliveries to Kyiv and a block on the country’s path to NATO membership.
Both President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested on Friday that the administration is prepared to move on from its peace-brokering efforts unless progress is made quickly. US officials are due to meet with Ukrainian and European representatives to discuss US proposals to end the war.
The US has already scaled back its sanctions enforcement. In February, Trump shut down the KleptoCapture task force, a team formed shortly after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of its neighbor to implement measures imposed on Russia.
A total of 31 tankers loaded 23.45 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to April 20, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from 21.93 million barrels on 29 ships the previous week.
Crude flows in the seven days to April 20 stood at about 3.35 million barrels a day, a week-on-week increase of about 220,000 barrels a day.
The less volatile four-week average flows were also up, rising for the first time in four weeks to about 3.21 million barrels a day from 3.13 million a day in the period to April 13.
There were two shipments of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude during the week from Novorossiysk.
The gross value of Moscow’s exports recovered about two-thirds of the previous week’s drop, rising by about $130 million, or 12%, to $1.28 billion in the week to April 20, reflecting increases in both weekly average prices and shipments.
Export prices of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic rose by about $2.30 a barrel, while cargoes loading in the Black Sea were up by about $1.80 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO increased by about $2.40. Delivered prices in India were about $2 higher, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a four-week average basis, income was little changed in the period to April 20, edging higher to about $1.3 billion a week from $1.29 billion in the period to April 13. Using this measure, higher flows were almost completely offset by lower prices.
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 2.92 million barrels a day in the four weeks to April 20.
The figures include about 410,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point. They’re also boosted by another 50,000 barrels a day on vessels yet to show any destination.
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to April 20 averaged about 290,000 barrels a day, up by about 50,000 barrels a day from the revised figure for the previous week and the highest since the period ending Feb. 9.
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, April 29.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
