Russia Braces for End of New START Nuclear Treaty
James RileyNew START's expiration signals a perilous new reality without nuclear limits, fueling fears of an arms race.
Russia has signaled it is prepared for a "new reality" where no nuclear arms control treaty exists with the United States, as the landmark New START agreement is set to expire this week.
Without a last-minute deal, the expiration on Thursday will remove all constraints on the long-range strategic nuclear arsenals of both nations for the first time in over half a century.
"This is a new moment, a new reality—we are ready for it," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow's lead arms control negotiator, told Russian news agencies. He made the comments during a visit to Beijing for "strategic stability consultations."
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, limits each country to a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads.
US Silence Signals Treaty's Demise
Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested he would let the treaty lapse. His administration has not formally replied to a Russian offer to maintain the pact's missile and warhead limits for another year, which would have provided time to negotiate a successor agreement.
"The lack of an answer is also an answer," Ryabkov was quoted as saying by the TASS news agency.
Arms control advocates in both Moscow and Washington warn that the treaty's end will do more than just remove warhead limits. It is also expected to erode confidence, undermine trust, and eliminate the ability to verify the nuclear intentions of the other side. Many experts now fear the possibility of an unrestrained nuclear arms race.
The Broader Collapse of Arms Control
The network of agreements designed to prevent nuclear war, painstakingly built since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, has been steadily deteriorating. This trend is accelerating amid growing confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine and U.S. concerns about China's growing arsenal.
The United States has proposed that China, the world's third-largest nuclear power, should be included in future arms control negotiations. However, Beijing has shown no interest in participating. Ryabkov stated that China has a clear position on the matter and that Moscow respects it.
Warnings of a New Arms Race
Former U.S. President Barack Obama, who signed the New START treaty with then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, called on the U.S. Congress to take action.
"If Congress doesn't act, the last nuclear arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia will expire," he said on X. "It would pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy, and could spark another arms race that makes the world less safe."
Medvedev echoed these concerns, stating that the world should be alarmed if the treaty expires without a clear path forward, suggesting it would advance the "Doomsday Clock."
In a sign of escalating military calculations, Ryabkov also noted that if the U.S. were to place missile defense systems on Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, Russia would be forced to take compensatory military measures.
