Poland vs. Germany: An Alliance on the Brink

Poland leads Europe in defense spending as a percentage of GDP. Germany, the continent's economic powerhouse, is spending heavily to catch up. Both nations share a border, a deep understanding of the threat posed by Russia, and every reason to form a powerful new partnership at the heart of Europe.

And yet, relations between Warsaw and Berlin have rarely been so strained.

Instead of a seamless alliance, the relationship is defined by friction and historical grievances. This discord not only undermines European security but also benefits the very adversary they aim to counter.

The Great Divide: What's Driving a Wedge Between Warsaw and Berlin?

On paper, cooperation should be deep. Germany is contributing forces to Poland's "East Shield" initiative, a project designed to fortify its border with Belarus against Russian-backed threats. Poland, more than any other major EU nation, has faced hybrid attacks, from drone incursions into its airspace to relentless disinformation campaigns.

But even in critical areas like defense, progress has stalled. Military cooperation is just one of many fields where collaboration is stuttering, hampered by a toxic political atmosphere. The chill is a product of both the distant past and present-day political maneuvering.

In Poland's deeply divided society, history has become a political tool. With parliamentary elections scheduled for next fall, there is little to gain from appearing too friendly to Germany. This trend reverses decades of progress that began with German Chancellor Willy Brandt’s historic gesture of reconciliation in Warsaw in 1970 and accelerated after the fall of communism.

Recent polling confirms the souring mood. The Polish-German Barometer, a regular survey conducted since 2000, shows Polish attitudes toward Germans have worsened significantly in recent years. This decline has been accelerated by the rise of far-right populism, which found support during the first and second Trump administrations.

The Shadow of History: The Lingering Fight Over WWII Reparations

To rally its base, Poland's far-right Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed from 2015 to 2023, placed WWII reparations at the center of its foreign policy. In 2022, a government-commissioned report calculated that Germany owed Poland $1.3 trillion for damages caused by the Nazi occupation.

PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski called this figure—more than three times Germany's annual federal budget—"conservative."

The demand was overwhelmingly passed by the Polish parliament, with even Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Platform party voting in favor. After Tusk became prime minister, ousting PiS, he could not afford to shelve the issue for fear of being branded as "siding" with Berlin. In July 2024, the German government reportedly prepared to offer 200 million euros ($214 million) to support surviving Polish victims, but Warsaw ultimately rejected the proposal.

Berlin has consistently maintained that the matter is legally closed. Germany's position rests on two key arguments:

1. Poland waived its right to reparations in a 1953 agreement, where East Germany ceded territories to Poland and Russia.

2. Any remaining issues were settled by the 1990 2+4 agreement between Britain, France, the Soviet Union, and the United States, which paved the way for German reunification.

The current Polish government counters that the 1953 waiver was made under pressure from the Soviet Union. The dispute continues to simmer, fueling diplomatic tension. In late 2025, Germany’s ambassador to Warsaw, Miguel Berger, voiced his frustration, suggesting some who raise the issue "do not want Polish-German relations to develop positively." He later added on social media that the demands only help Russian President Vladimir Putin, sparking further outrage from PiS politicians.

Poland's Political Deadlock and its Global Fallout

The strained relationship is complicated further by Poland's internal political gridlock. Last May's presidential election saw ultranationalist Karol Nawrocki defeat the Civic Platform candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Poland's post-communist constitution was designed to prevent any single leader from accumulating too much power. Today, this has created deadlock, as the offices of the president and prime minister are held by ideologically opposed parties.

While Prime Minister Tusk aims to move Poland closer to the EU's core, President Nawrocki has built his own foreign policy apparatus. He has aligned himself with the MAGA movement, endorsing the Trump administration's National Security Strategy (NSS).

This alignment has had tangible consequences. Washington invited Nawrocki to the White House during his campaign, and he received a formal endorsement from Kristi Noem, President Donald Trump's secretary of homeland security, during a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) event in Poland. PiS politicians are now welcome guests at CPAC events in Washington, while the official Polish ambassador, who reports to Tusk, has struggled to get access.

When Nawrocki visited Trump for a second time as president, he broke protocol by not inviting anyone from the foreign ministry. The Trump administration's NSS openly states its intention to weaken the EU and embrace right-wing nationalists across Europe, further deepening the rift between Tusk's government and its German counterparts.

On-the-Ground Tensions: From Border Checks to Diplomatic Barbs

These high-level political battles have spilled over into real-world conflicts. Germany's unilateral decision last year to implement immigration checks on its border with Poland infuriated Warsaw.

When German police began turning back migrants, self-proclaimed "citizen patrols" formed on the Polish side to prevent the returns. The pressure forced Prime Minister Tusk to declare that "Poland's patience is running out," and his government responded with its own tit-for-tat border checks. While the measures have since been scaled back, the underlying tensions can be easily inflamed again.

The political rhetoric remains sharp. PiS leader Kaczynski has framed the EU as a liberal enterprise controlled by Germany, which he has called a "Fourth Reich." He has also labeled Tusk a "German agent," a remark that earned him a parliamentary reprimand. This narrative often leverages the fact that Tusk's grandfather was conscripted into the Nazi armed forces—a detail that omits his later desertion to fight against Hitler.

Can the Relationship Be Salvaged?

Despite the discord, diplomatic efforts continue. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited both Paris and Warsaw shortly after taking office last May, hoping for a "new opening" in relations. With its ties to France also under strain, Germany is eager for closer cooperation with Poland, especially on supporting Ukraine.

The trilateral Weimar Triangle, a forum for Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw, has also been revived. However, these initiatives are struggling against the weight of political division and historical distrust. For two of Europe's most critical powers, the path to a functional alliance remains obstructed.