Iran's Missile Arsenal: Can Israel's Defenses Hold?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has estimated his country could withstand over 700 missile strikes from Iran. But this confidence belies a critical reality: Iran commands the largest ballistic missile stockpile in the Middle East, an arsenal that far exceeds that number and includes weapons for which there are no proven defenses.

As the United States maintains a significant naval presence off the Iranian coast, the prospect of a direct confrontation looms. While Netanyahu's tough stance may resonate publicly, it overlooks the true scale of the threat facing Israel and U.S. bases across the region.

The Scale of Iran's Offensive Power

Iran's missile arsenal is not just large; it is sophisticated and diverse. Many of its ballistic missiles have ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers, allowing them to strike deep into Israeli territory directly from Iranian soil. This capability is enhanced by a growing inventory of advanced weaponry.

The arsenal includes:

• Hypersonic Weapons: These missiles fly at extreme speeds and on unpredictable trajectories, making them nearly impossible for current defense systems to intercept.

• Maneuverable Ballistic Missiles: Systems like the Kheibar Shekan and Fattah-1 are medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) designed to evade regional air defenses on their way to a target.

This combination of sheer volume and technological sophistication presents a formidable challenge to any defensive network.

Israel's Multi-Layered but Strained Shield

Israel protects itself with a multi-layered air defense network developed over decades, incorporating U.S.-supplied systems. This includes the well-known Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Patriot/Arrow systems.

During the recent 12-Day War, Israeli officials acknowledged an interception rate of 80-90%. However, this success rate comes with critical caveats. First, no system is perfect, meaning a percentage of incoming threats will always get through.

More importantly, Israel’s air defense network is not fully replenished following the last conflict. This vulnerability, combined with Iran's capacity to launch a massive, coordinated attack involving missile salvos, drone swarms, and hypersonic weapons, means Israel's defenses could be overwhelmed. A successful saturation attack could shut down the Israeli economy and inflict lasting damage at a moment of critical national vulnerability.

Tehran's Strategy of Deterrence and Escalation

Following the 12-Day War, Iran's Defense Minister, Brig. Gen. Aziz Nassirzadeh, issued a clear warning. He claimed that the missiles used in that conflict were older models and that Iran had since developed systems with "far greater capabilities."

Nassirzadeh emphasized that if Israel were to launch another attack, Tehran would not hesitate to unleash its newer, more advanced missiles. This rhetoric is backed by action. Reports indicate Iran has ramped up missile production since last June, upgrading guidance and lethality based on lessons learned from the recent conflict.

This is a deliberate strategy. Tehran is signaling to both Jerusalem and Washington that any future military action against Iran will trigger massive retaliation, carrying risks far greater than in previous encounters. The message is that Iran believes its arsenal is now numerous and capable enough to saturate the region's air defenses.

The High Stakes of a Regional Miscalculation

The strategic landscape is further complicated by the stance of neighboring Arab countries. While wary of Tehran, these nations are also concerned about Israeli military actions. They have reportedly informed the U.S. and Israel that they will neither permit their territory to be used for strikes against Iran nor participate in defending Israel from an Iranian counter-attack.

This political reality means an Israeli-American conflict with Iran would not be a short, surgical campaign. Instead, it would become a systemic stress test of Israel's national resilience and America's waning regional power. Tehran is signaling its preparedness to absorb damage while inflicting devastation on an unprecedented scale.

If Washington and Jerusalem continue to believe that precision strikes and layered defenses alone can neutralize a missile superpower, they risk a profound miscalculation. Such an assumption could lead them into a war where the costs far exceed any promised gains.