Indonesia Targets Nearly 30% Export Growth by 2029, Sets Ambitious Trade Roadmap

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Summary:

Indonesia projects a sharp rise in export earnings from $294 billion in 2025 to nearly $406 billion by 2029, signaling strong medium-term optimism despite a temporary slowdown in growth momentum...

Steady Momentum and Ambitious Trade Outlook

Indonesia has unveiled a robust mid-term export expansion strategy, setting a target to grow export earnings from an estimated $294 billion in 2025 to $315 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching approximately $406 billion by 2029. The plan, disclosed by Trade Minister Budi Santoso, outlines a compound growth ambition of nearly 30% over four years. This signals Jakarta’s confidence in the nation’s trade fundamentals and its ability to capitalize on global economic opportunities, even as annual growth moderates slightly in the short term.

According to the Ministry of Trade, the expected export growth for 2026 stands at 7.09%, marginally below the projected 7.1% for 2025. This downward adjustment is attributed not to weakening performance, but to the strong export base built over recent years, which naturally tempers incremental growth rates. This distinction highlights a causal relationship: a higher base leads to slightly slower percentage increases without indicating structural weakness.

Gradual Acceleration in Export Value Targets

The Indonesian government’s roadmap forecasts a progressive rise in annual export revenue:

2025: $294 billion

2026: $315 billion

2027: $340.2 billion

2028: $370.04 billion

2029: $405.69 billion

This translates to a consistent year-on-year increase and a 38% cumulative gain over five years. The steady trajectory reflects a correlative alignment between export sector growth and broader national development goals, as Indonesia seeks to diversify its trade portfolio beyond raw commodities and towards higher-value sectors.

Institutional Support and Trade Partnerships Drive Confidence

To meet these goals, the Ministry of Trade is working closely with the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) and the Indonesian Exporters Association (GPEI). These collaborations aim to deepen business connectivity, organize trade promotion forums, and fully leverage the suite of international trade agreements Indonesia has signed.

The government’s approach blends private-sector engagement with state-led facilitation. This public-private partnership model plays a causal role in shaping export dynamics, ensuring that policy instruments align with on-the-ground exporter needs and that international market access is continuously expanded.

Trade Agreements and Market Integration as Growth Catalysts

Indonesia’s recent participation in multiple regional and bilateral trade pacts—such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and agreements with countries in the Middle East and Europe—is expected to enhance its trade competitiveness. The utilization of these agreements will reduce tariff barriers, enhance logistics networks, and attract new investment into export-oriented sectors.

The causal relationship here is clear: trade agreements lower external frictions, which, combined with targeted promotion strategies, lead to stronger market penetration and export volume growth.

Indonesia’s export growth strategy for 2026–2029 represents more than numerical targets; it reflects a coordinated effort to solidify its place in global supply chains and elevate the sophistication of its trade portfolio. Despite a minor deceleration in growth in the immediate term, the country is positioning itself for sustained medium-term expansion through strategic alliances, institutional reform, and enhanced private-sector engagement. As the world’s fourth most populous nation with abundant natural resources and rising manufacturing capacity, Indonesia’s export ambitions are not just plausible—they are central to its long-term economic identity.

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