Hardliners Consolidate Power in Iran as the Window for Negotiations Narrows Further

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Summary:

Iran has yet to agree to attend talks; hardline Revolutionary Guard leadership is reportedly consolidating full control...

Key Highlights

1. Iran’s Supreme Leader reiterates three core positions

2. The U.S. unilaterally “sets” a negotiation date, but Iran has yet to agree to attend

3. Trump says sanctions on Iran will not be lifted before a deal is reached

4. Hardline Revolutionary Guard leadership reportedly consolidates full control

5. Fed nominee Warsh pledges to uphold monetary policy independence

Details

Iran’s Supreme Leader Reiterates Three Core Positions

On the 20th (local time), Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei once again reaffirmed three core positions, including demands for war reparations, emphasizing the need to firmly safeguard national interests.

According to his official social media account, Iran will hold accountable those responsible for attacks against it and seek compensation for wartime losses; advance the governance of the Strait of Hormuz into a new phase; and never relinquish its legitimate rights, while treating all resistance forces in the region as a unified front.

Earlier this month, on the 9th, Mojtaba had already outlined these three points in a written statement marking the 40th day since the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with comments on the ongoing conflict.

U.S. Unilaterally Sets Negotiation Date, Iran Still Undecided

The United States and Iran began a two-week ceasefire on April 8 (Beijing time), which is set to expire on the 22nd. As of now, there has been no clear progress on whether a second round of talks can take place before the ceasefire ends.

The U.S. has indicated that talks are planned as scheduled, while Iran has stated it has not yet decided whether to participate, leaving the negotiations highly uncertain at the final stage.

Trump: No Lifting of Sanctions Until a Deal Is Reached

On April 20 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump stated on social media that sanctions on Iran will not be lifted until a deal is reached.

Since the 13th, U.S. forces have enforced a blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. On the 14th, U.S. Central Command claimed it had “completely cut off Iran’s maritime import and export trade.”

Iran initially announced on the 17th that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial vessels, but reversed course on the 18th, stating that it would resume control over transit in the Strait due to the U.S. maintaining its maritime blockade.

According to Iranian officials on the 20th, Pakistan is currently mediating efforts to persuade the United States to lift the blockade in order to ensure Iran’s participation in negotiations.

Hardline Revolutionary Guard Leadership Reportedly Consolidates Power

According to analysis cited by the New York Post, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War stated that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Vahidi and his core group are believed to have effectively taken control of the country.

Iran’s recent attacks on vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as its refusal to engage in peace talks with the United States this week, are seen as evidence of Vahidi’s control. The sudden shift toward a more hardline stance also suggests that more moderate figures within Iran’s leadership, including Foreign Minister Araghchi, have been sidelined.

Araghchi had previously agreed over the weekend, following discussions with the Trump administration, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the IRGC insisted that the Strait remain closed as long as the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports continues.

Reports also indicate that Vahidi has the backing of Ali Akbar Ahmadian (note: if referring to Zolghadr, adjust accordingly), Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a former IRGC commander, further consolidating his control over both the Strait and the broader political landscape.

Fed Nominee Warsh Pledges to Uphold Monetary Policy Independence

The U.S. Congress is set to hold the first confirmation hearing on Tuesday (local time) for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, who is expected to pledge strict independence in interest rate decisions.

According to prepared remarks obtained by the media, Warsh will state that monetary policy decisions must remain strictly independent of political considerations and should not serve short-term political objectives. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve’s credibility is rooted in institutional constraints and policy discipline.

Warsh noted that central banks should listen to diverse views and that political commentary on interest rates does not pose a real threat. Instead, it is the Fed’s own discipline and rigor that sustain its independence. He reaffirmed that price stability is the Fed’s core mandate and pledged to take full responsibility for achieving it.

He also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the Fed’s role, arguing that it should not extend into fiscal or social policy areas beyond its legal mandate.

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold the confirmation hearing at 10:00 PM Taiwan time on April 21.

Meanwhile, the Department of Justice is investigating cost overruns in the renovation of the Federal Reserve building. Several lawmakers have stated they will not approve Warsh’s nomination until the investigation concludes. This suggests that Warsh is unlikely to be in place when Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15.

Today’s Focus

14:00 — UK three-month ILO unemployment rate (February)

14:30 — Remarks by ECB Governing Council member Nagel

16:00 — Remarks by ECB Governing Council member Rehn

17:00 — Germany April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

20:30 — U.S. March retail sales (MoM)

22:00 — U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair

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