Gold Tops $4,900 as Goldman Sachs ups Year-end Forecast
ManuelSummary:
The analysts predict that private-sector buyers diversifying their portfolios won’t be selling this year, helping keep prices elevated.
Gold (GC=F) futures surpassed $4,900 for the first time on Thursday as Goldman Sachs analysts raised their price target on the precious metal, citing private-sector investors jumping into the rally.
“We raise our Dec2026 gold price forecast to $5,400/toz (vs. $4,900 prior) because the key upside risk we have flagged — private sector diversification into gold — has started to realize,” Goldman’s Daan Struyven and his team said in a note on Wednesday night.
The analysts predict that private-sector buyers diversifying their portfolios won’t be selling this year, helping keep prices elevated.
Goldman Sachs noted that while central bank buying drove solid gold price increases in 2023 and 2024, the rally has accelerated since 2025 as the institutions began competing for limited bullion with private-sector investors through traditional ETF purchases, sparked by Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The so-called “debasement theme” also contributed to gold's move higher, as high-net-worth families increased physical gold purchases and investor call option activity added further momentum.
“We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as two-sided but still significantly skewed to the upside because private sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” the analysts said.
Bullion has made turns higher at every major geopolitical event this year, including the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s tariff threats in pursuit of Greenland.
On Wednesday, Trump said that a "framework of a future deal" for the Arctic territory was reached, and new tariffs against EU nations would not be implemented.
While gold futures briefly declined overnight, they have since risen again toward record highs.
Bullion prices have rallied roughly 11% year to date, extending their nearly 65% gains from 2025.
On Thursday, UBS strategists noted ”the metal has once again proven its worth when geopolitical risks intensify.”
“For investors with an affinity for the asset class, we believe a mid-single-digit allocation remains appropriate in a balanced USD portfolio," wrote Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer Americas and global head of equities for UBS Wealth Management.
The firm has a price target of $5,000 per troy ounce, with upside risks to $5,400 if geopolitical tensions resurface.
Source: Yahoo Finance
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