Cyber Monday 2025 Poised to Break Records Despite Economic Anxiety

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Summary:

Cyber Monday spending is projected to hit $14.2 billion in the U.S., boosted by deep discounts, mobile-driven purchases, and the rise of “buy now, pay later” services despite consumer concerns over inflation, tariffs, and job security....

Surging Online Deals Propel Cyber Monday Spending

Amid an uncertain economic climate, U.S. shoppers are on track to set a new record this Cyber Monday, with Adobe Analytics forecasting $14.2 billion in online sales up 6.3% from 2024. This follows a strong Black Friday showing with $11.8 billion in online purchases and $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day, indicating a robust start to the peak of the holiday shopping season.

Consumers are taking advantage of elevated discounts, particularly on electronics and apparel, where average markdowns hit 30% and 26%, respectively. The strong momentum supports the view that shoppers are frontloading purchases to capitalize on the best prices, turning Cyber Monday into a high-stakes “last call” for significant holiday savings.

Mobile Commerce and AI Fueling Sales Growth

Mobile devices have overtaken desktops as the dominant shopping platform, with 56.1% of online holiday spending equivalent to $142.7 billion expected to be conducted via smartphones and other handheld electronics. Adobe predicts mobile transactions will hit a new milestone on Cyber Monday, as convenience and AI-powered shopping assistants guide consumers through personalized deals.

AI’s growing role in shaping e-commerce behavior is evident. Salesforce estimates AI contributed to $14.2 billion of the $79 billion spent globally on Black Friday, showing a direct relationship between personalized product recommendations and consumer decision-making at scale.

Economic Pressures Shift Consumer Payment Behavior

Despite high sales figures, underlying economic concerns persist. Inflation, layoffs, and the residual impact of the 43-day government shutdown have dampened confidence. Rising tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policies have further elevated import prices, tightening household budgets.

In response, more shoppers are relying on deferred payment options. Adobe estimates that “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) plans will account for $20.2 billion in online holiday purchases, up 11% year-over-year. Cyber Monday alone is expected to see BNPL purchases surpass $1 billion, much of it via mobile platforms. This shift indicates a behavioral change in how consumers manage cash flow under financial stress a correlation that highlights the increasing normalization of short-term credit tools in retail.

Growth Slowing, But Spending Still Strong

The National Retail Federation expects U.S. holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, though growth will moderate to between 3.7% and 4.2%, compared to 4.3% in 2024. Credit card delinquencies are rising, suggesting a fragile foundation beneath the record-setting spending.

Still, the psychology of urgency around Cyber Monday deals, combined with newer digital shopping tools and flexible payment models, is helping push volumes higher even as the economic backdrop remains turbulent. Popular items like the Nintendo Switch 2, Labubu Dolls, and flagship smartphones such as the iPhone 17 and Galaxy S25 are expected to be among the top sellers.

A Record-Breaking Cyber Monday With Caveats

Cyber Monday 2025 is shaping up to be the biggest yet, powered by strategic discounting, mobile access, AI-enhanced shopping, and consumer willingness to spend despite cautionary economic signals. However, the record figures mask underlying vulnerabilities: a reliance on credit, trade-related price pressures, and the fragility of household financial stability.

This year’s performance reflects not just the success of digital commerce infrastructure but also the precarious balance between consumer desire and economic reality a trend likely to persist through the rest of the holiday season and into 2026.

Source: Reuters

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