Bitcoin Risks 10%–15% BTC Price Dip After Key Rejection Near $89K 1/2
Warren TakundaSummary:
Bitcoin faces "overbought" stochastic RSI conditions while the 200-day exponential moving average swats price down after it sets fresh April highs.
Bitcoin traders see a BTC price reversal beginning as classic resistance stops bulls in their tracks.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
200-day moving average keeps BTC price pinned
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD cooling after hitting new April highs of $88,874.
Having found strength at the start of the week, Bitcoin raised hopes of a gold copycat move as the latter set multiple all-time highs.
Those highs continued on April 22, while BTC price action conversely saw rejection at the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
“Interesting spot. Broke above the Daily 200EMA (Blue) and diagonal resistance. So far, saw a sharp rejection from the Daily 200MA (Purple),” trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X alongside an explanatory chart.
“Fun won't start until we get some daily closes back above the previous range low at ~$90K. Important to hold ~$85K below I'd say.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
The 200-day SMA traditionally forms support during Bitcoin bull markets, but was lost in March as crypto faced sell-side pressure when the US trade war began.
Since then, BTC/USD has seen five-month lows under $75,000, and despite a healthy rebound, some market participants are keen to call time on the latest episode of price upside.
Among them is fellow trader Roman, who referenced stochastic relative strength index (RSI) values in “overbought” territory.
“As we approach horizontal resistance, I wanted to show that the last 4 times stoch RSI has been overbought, we’ve seen a 10-15% correction,” he noted, adding that such a move “would make perfect sense” given downward momentum on the S&P 500.
Daily stochastic RSI was at the top of its 0-100 scale on April 22.
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 SMA, stoch RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin “reversal has started,” says trader
As Cointelegraph continues to report, other bullish market commentary focuses on the confluence of macroeconomic factors that traditionally fuel BTC price gains.
These include rapidly weakening US dollar strength, all-time highs in the global M2 money supply and a delayed reaction to gold’s breakout.
“In the past few weeks, I’m looking at different onchain data and global events, which makes me believe that BTC reversal has started,” trader Cas Abbe concluded in a dedicated X thread on the topic.
Abbe rejected the idea that the current BTC rebound will end up as a “bull trap,” pointing to whale accumulation and the reemerging Coinbase premium in addition to macroeconomic factors.
“I believe that $74K-$75K zone was the bottom for $BTC. Most alts have also bottomed out and we could see a sustained rally,” he added.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD chart. Source: Cas Abbe/X
Source: Cointelegraph
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