Bitcoin: Path to $120K Hinges on Sustaining Above $114,600 Support

Adam

Summary:

Bitcoin rose 3.5% but faces resistance near \$115K. Sustaining daily closes above \$114,600 could open a path to \$120K–\$125K. Fed’s September 17 rate decision and Powell’s guidance remain key drivers.

In the second week of September, Bitcoin experienced a cautious upward trend, reaching a critical resistance level by week’s end. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut are being factored into the market, influenced by recent data. While last week’s focus was on the weak US labor market, attention has now shifted to inflation data. Despite the anticipated rate cut being seen as positive for market risk appetite, investors remained cautious ahead of the inflation figures.

The gradual recovery in market risk appetite resulted in only a modest increase in Bitcoin’s value. However, the upward momentum accelerated following surprisingly low producer price index results and inflation data aligning with forecasts. An important driver of this momentum was the increased investment in Bitcoin ETFs.

Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17. The consensus in the market is for a 25 basis point cut, although some analysts consider a 50 basis point cut a possibility. While this expected rate cut is largely reflected in risk markets, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments post-decision could trigger increased market volatility.

In the cryptocurrency markets, moderate sentiment persists. One reason for Bitcoin’s constrained growth this week is the shift of funds towards altcoins. Bitcoin rose 3.5% over the week, but the overall market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH increased by 6%. Bitcoin’s dominance rate has decreased, reaching a support level not seen in a month, while its price meets a critical resistance level.

For Bitcoin’s upward trend to continue sustainably, it will be crucial for the dominance rate—currently at 57%—to remain steady. If funds continue to flow predominantly into altcoins, Bitcoin may stay in a bearish channel for a period.

Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook

Bitcoin has shifted upward again, gaining support from the lower boundary of the downward channel as September began. With this support around the $108,000 region, Bitcoin is now challenging the upper band of the channel, which aligns with the $115,000 mark today.

Although the momentum in this area has weakened, it coincides with the Fibonacci expansion level beginning at $114,600, part of the broader upward trend. For Bitcoin to sustain its rise, it’s crucial to hold above the support line that technically extends to $114,600 in the coming days. Maintaining daily closes above this level would position Bitcoin to approach the $120,000 milestone and potentially reach $125,400.

The short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines are currently pointing upwards, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. However, the overbought Stochastic RSI on the daily chart serves as a cautionary signal. Despite this, the indicator remains above 80, suggesting continued buying interest. This buying momentum could persist if Bitcoin maintains a price above $114,600.

In the event of a reversal, the mid-band level of the downward sloping channel we’ve monitored since July, at $111,600, becomes crucial. Falling below this secondary support level may put the $108,000 region back into focus.

Macro Developments That May Affect BTC Price

The cautious upward movement in Bitcoin’s price has been driven by anticipation of upcoming events. Following the release of the US CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its interest rate policy on September 17. Additionally, the possibility of reduced risk appetite and increased price pressure due to the Trump administration’s tariffs remains a concern.

Bitcoin is likely to approach the crucial week of the interest rate policy decision at around $115,000, a significant resistance zone. All markets are focused on the Fed’s interest rate policy, which could enhance liquidity in riskier markets. If the Fed, after announcing a rate cut, provides a clear outlook for future rate changes, it could support Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Conversely, if Chairman Powell adopts a more cautious stance, escalating tensions between the Fed and the Trump administration could create negative sentiment, potentially increasing selling pressure.

Source: investing

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