Europe’s Energy Divorce from Russia: Inside the High-Stakes Plan to End Oil and Gas Dependence by 2027

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Summary:

The European Union is finalizing a plan to completely end fossil fuel imports from Russia by 2027 or 2028. The ambitious Repower EU strategy faces opposition from key Central European states ...

Final Countdown: EU’s Deadline to Cut Russian Fossil Fuels

The European Union is approaching a decisive moment. Within weeks, it will finalize whether to ban all remaining fossil fuel imports from Russia by early 2027 or postpone the exit to 2028. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU has made significant progress in weaning itself off Russian energy, particularly seaborne oil. Yet, natural gas still constitutes two-thirds of the EU’s remaining fossil fuel imports from Moscow.

This plan, known as Repower EU, aims to permanently eliminate Russian oil and gas dependency by focusing on energy efficiency, expanding renewable sources, and diversifying suppliers. However, the road to full energy independence remains riddled with economic, geopolitical, and infrastructure hurdles.

The Central European Challenge: Hungary and Slovakia Dig In

Hungary and Slovakia continue importing cheap oil and gas from Russia via the Druzhba and Turkstream pipelines and have resisted EU sanctions multiple times. In September alone, Hungary spent over €390 million on Russian fossil fuels. While the Czech Republic ended its Russian oil imports in April, Hungary and Slovakia show little intention of following suit despite alternative pipeline options being technically available.

The Turkstream pipeline, which runs through Bulgaria, still delivers increasing volumes of Russian gas to Europe and weakens internal production incentives by keeping prices low.

Shifting Supply Lines: LNG Market Volatility and the U.S. Factor

Much of Europe’s ability to eliminate Russian gas depends on the global LNG market. Liquefied Natural Gas has helped offset lost pipeline supplies, but intense competition from Asian markets and geopolitical uncertainty make long-term reliance risky.

The U.S. has emerged as a top supplier, accounting for 24% of the EU’s total gas imports in Q1 2025. The EU also signed a three-year deal in July to import $250 billion worth of American energy. Yet with the potential return of Donald Trump, a more unpredictable energy partner looms.

Experts note that new supply from the U.S. and Canada expected in 2026 could ease market pressure and lower prices, shifting the LNG market toward buyer dominance.

Renewables: A New Dependency on China

While increasing the share of renewables is central to Repower EU, this shift introduces a new vulnerability: overdependence on China. The country dominates the supply chain for solar panels, wind turbines, and rare earth minerals resources that are being weaponized in Beijing’s trade disputes with the U.S.

Europe must now navigate the balance between energy sovereignty and renewable expansion without simply trading one geopolitical dependency for another.

Turkey’s Growing Role as a Russian Energy Gateway

Turkey, though a NATO member, has deepened its energy ties with Russia, becoming the third-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels after China and India. It also acts as a re-export hub for Russian oil and refined products to Europe. In September alone, Turkey imported €2.6 billion in Russian fossil fuels.

The EU’s 18th sanctions package, passed in July, includes a ban (effective 2026) on refined oil imports from third countries that are net crude importers a clear attempt to block Russia’s backdoor into the EU market. Still, analysts warn these sanctions may lack sufficient enforcement to close loopholes.

Legislative Tug-of-War: 2027 or 2028?

The European Parliament supports a full ban by 2027. However, the EU Council comprising energy ministers from all 27 member states favors a 2028 deadline. This discrepancy will be resolved through upcoming negotiations. The timeline decision is crucial: it will shape not just the EU's future energy map, but also its climate goals, strategic autonomy, and geopolitical posture.

Even if Repower EU passes swiftly, concerns remain about its durability. Spain has pushed for Article 15, which would allow member states to temporarily lift the ban in undefined “emergency” cases a clause that risks being exploited.

The EU’s push to sever its energy ties with Russia is among the most complex geopolitical and infrastructural projects in its history. It requires not only legislative consensus and technological transformation but also geopolitical navigation in an increasingly volatile world. The coming months will test whether Europe can truly break free from Russian energy and at what cost.

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