China's EV Boom Disrupts Holiday Gasoline Demand Patterns

Gerik

Summary:

China's Golden Week in October, once known for surging gasoline use, instead saw a 9% year-over-year drop in demand, as electric vehicle adoption accelerates and reshapes the country’s energy consumption profile....

China’s Traditional Fuel Demand Faces Structural Shift During Golden Week

This year’s Golden Week, historically a period of peak fuel consumption in China, defied expectations as gasoline demand declined markedly. Rather than a seasonal surge, the country recorded a 9% year-over-year drop in October gasoline usage, falling to an estimated 12.5 million tons. This shift reflects a deeper transformation in mobility patterns, driven by the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids.

According to data from Sublime China Information (SCI), average daily fuel consumption during the holiday period remained consistent with September levels, breaking the usual cyclical pattern of holiday-induced demand spikes. The subdued consumption is not a short-term anomaly but a symptom of China’s longer-term pivot toward electrified transport. This trend is increasingly undermining the longstanding narrative of China as the principal engine of global oil demand growth.

Electric Vehicles Overtake Gasoline Cars in Holiday Travel

The story of Tianyu Jiang, who drove 2,000 kilometers from Sichuan to Beijing in an EV for the first time, encapsulates the changing mindset of Chinese drivers. Once hesitant about EVs for long-distance travel, many are now reassured by the growing availability of charging points. Jiang noted that waiting is inevitable during travel peaks, regardless of fuel type, but EV users can reliably find charging stations within a 10-kilometer radius from highways. The cost of charging is also significantly lower than traditional refueling, further incentivizing the shift.

Data from the transport ministry supports the anecdotal shift: one in five of the 63.5 million car trips made during the eight-day Golden Week holiday were undertaken in either electric or hybrid vehicles. This aligns with the broader trend observed across the year, where EVs and hybrids accounted for nearly half of all new vehicle sales in China during the first nine months.

Structural Infrastructure Growth Reinforces EV Viability

The expansion of EV charging infrastructure has played a critical enabling role in this transition. As of the end of September, China had deployed approximately 18 million charging ports nationwide, representing a 54.5% increase compared to the same time last year. This rapid infrastructure growth not only supports daily commutes but also makes long-distance travel more feasible for EV owners, dissolving one of the major barriers to mass adoption.

The impact of these changes is quantifiable. During Golden Week, the electricity consumed at public charging stations rose by 45.73% compared to the previous year, reflecting both a surge in EV usage and an increasingly confident user base.

Oil Demand in Decline as EVs Become Mainstream

The broader implications for the global energy market are significant. China's gasoline consumption already peaked in 2023, and Sinopec’s research division anticipates a 4% drop in gasoline demand this year relative to 2024. This decline marks a structural inflection point for China the world’s largest importer of crude oil and signals a potential decoupling of economic growth from fossil fuel dependency.

This evolving transportation landscape in China is a critical signal for energy producers worldwide. As electrification spreads and infrastructure matures, the fossil fuel demand curve may flatten or reverse in other emerging economies as well. China’s Golden Week 2025 may be remembered not just for its traffic volume, but for signaling the approaching end of gasoline's holiday dominance.

Source: Reuters

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